With a talented, 20-horse field expected to enter the starting gate, you NEED to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2022 Kentucky Derby picks of your own. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! In 10 of the last 12 Runs For The Roses, the winner posted a 100+ BSF in victory. Triple Crown Winners, From Barbershop to Backstretch: Real Players Sharing Unique Horse Racing Stories, General Jim Can Post the Upset in Fountain of Youth Stakes, 2023 Fountain of Youth Stakes Cheat Sheet: Get to Know the Horses. 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card. border: 1px solid #CCC; A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball. CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TDN FOR FREE! From this work, using the same principle, Kovitz derived the beaten-lengths chart which Beyer published in Picking Winners. In two of that years Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. Taiba won as much the best, again earning a Beyer figure north of 100. 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail: By the Numbers. We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . Figure 1a shows the stack of the device used for the study with a scanning electron microscope . The race got a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. Danzing Candy won the San Felipe at the same distance in 1:43.04. According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. Beyer Speed Figures favor Epicenter, and it is not very close. Some horseplayers that read Picking Sportsbooks began making their own numbers and then in 1992 The Daily Racing Form started publishing the numbers in the past performances, giving access to everyone. Considering how poorly the Gazelle entrants ran in the Kentucky Oaks, it seems that the Gazelle was painfully weak this year, making the Wood look better than it really was. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. Receive daily headlines, breaking news alerts, promotions, and much . Six of the last eight horses to cross the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby have come from California. Before you place your wagers on the Derby, you'll want the skinny on the horses. Overall, the number reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run. . Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets: Will Texas Road Slump Continue? Messier notched his 103 in the Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 6. . 97. She turned in one of the best Beyer Speed Figures of any 2-year-old in 2021, and her 92 Beyer in the Honeybee Stakes last month was considerably better than Un Ojo's 84 in winning the Rebel . Questions of general interest will be preferred for publication. Follow TheLines on Twitter for complete 2022 Kentucky Derby coverage. We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . She earned an impressive 98 Beyer Speed Figure in that race, the best of any Oaks rival by six points. Sven Beyer. Other Andrew Beyer Breeders Cup picks are on the main page. The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. Because multiple horses are in each race, as opposed to two teams (binary) in a sport (or chess, which uses the Elo rating system to make power ratings), the task of adjusting power ratings is much more complex. Longtime Washington Post columnist Andy Beyer created the Beyer Speed Figures, first appearing in his groundbreaking handicapping book Picking Sportsbooks in 1975. Taiba broke his maiden with that impressive number in a six-furlong race on March 5. padding: 4px; [22] However, Beyer also acknowledged that by some calculations, Count Fleet's Beyer speed figures might have reached 150. Taiba (+800) and Messier (+800) lead the group having posted 103s previously in Kentucky Derby Prep races. Olympiad, with Junior Alvarado in the irons, rolled to a 2 -length victory in the July 2 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs, his fifth win in a row to start off 2022. . 'TDN Rising Star' Flightline (Tapit) is really, really, fast. Donaldson's Consistent Handicapping Profits (1936), which was cited by Jerry Brown as the method on which the Ragozin and Brown "sheet" figures are based. Daily Racing Form provides the top 25 race horses ranked by earnings. It has sold approximately 200,000 copies, has been translated into Japanese and Korean, and is still in print after 44 years. [14] Alysheba ran a 122 speed figure in his career. The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. Among long shots, Zozos has the best chance to spring an upset, based on speed figures. Welcome to 2022 Kentucky Derby Prospect Snapshots, where we'll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule from which the . (Note that this speed figure was assigned before the numbers were published in the Daily Racing Form, so may not be included in some listings of the top speed figures. . color: #FFF; One of those came from Olympiad, who punched his ticket to the $6 million Longines Breeders Cup Classic with a win in the $740,000 Stephen Foster Stakes July 2 at Churchill Downs. margin: 3px; [15][16], Beyer speculated that had his figures existed in 1973, Secretariat would have scored 139 in his classic 1973 win at the Belmont Stakes. Taiba earned the same number when defeating his stablemate in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Below we take a closer look at the Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Figures to determine his biggest threats. On 2016s Derby trail, the top number was the 103 earned by Exaggerator in his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. They keep stressing do what's right for the horse. When handicapping a horse race, there are more variables than one can count, but using the Beyer Speed Figures will get you headed in the right direction. padding: 4px; He also wanted a rating system that could compare horses at different distances and at all racetracks. The Malibu was the longest start of his career. )[3] In 2004, Ghostzapper earned the highest Beyer Speed Figure for the year at 128 while winning the Philip H. Iselin Stakes. Unlike many of his rivals, he still has room to catch up on speed figures. font-weight: bold; The Beyer Speed Figure specifically does not consider other variables such as the early pace or traffic problems a horse may have faced during a given race. He has faster numbers across the board than Florida Derby winner White Abarrio and will likely be double the price. Brisnet does not mark Epicenter as a standout. The only thing Sadler would commit to is that Flightline's next race will not be a sprint. Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at Best San Felipe Stakes Winners, Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at Best Fountain of Youth Stakes Winners, Triple Crown Turning Point: The Right Rider for Gallant Fox, SLIDESHOW: U.S. They have come in quite a bit behind their competition, too, with next-lowest belonging to Barber Road. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. In last year's Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit posted a 102 Beyer Speed Figure when crossing the wire first. Epicenter has just recently won the Risen Star stakes by about three lengths with a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 points. He was nearly in a walk when crossing the wire after completing the seven furlongs in 1:21.37. He has had only three 3 starts and has yet to go beyond 1 1/16 miles. [12] Easy Goer also ran 121, 120 and 119 speed figures in the 1989 Travers Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Whitney Handicap. Preakness 2022: Who are the fastest contenders. Epicenter (+400) ran his own 102 BSF race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). The ultimate objective is to have every number express the quality of a horses performance. They are meant to represent the racing merit of an Australian horse. Speightstown has enjoyed success as a sire on dirt and turf and with sprinters as well as longer-distance runners. His Brisnet high of 101 is tied with Epicenter. Obviously the racing surface at Tampa Bay Downs that day was playing slightly faster. The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. } 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. Nest improved to an 82 Beyer and a 99 Equibase figure in the Suncoast. Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts. 107. Both represent significant jumps - and another notable improvement, which would be necessary to compete against elite 3-year-olds, is a big ask from a 3-year-old. Messier's career high of 127 and Taiba's best of 125 top the field. Commentator, who once ran a 123 in his career, scored a 120 as a 7-year-old, possibly a record for a horse that old. Messier and Taiba recorded a 103, tops on the list. The big step that I know for sure is that we want to get him stretched out, he said. Bob Weir revealed his 2022 Metropolitan Handicap picks ahead of Saturday's race, which is also known as the Met Mile . Creating these figures is the result of a very complex process that involves mathematical formulas and judgment calls . He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. After the New York Times gave the book an unexpected rave review, Picking Winners attracted a wide audience. Messier posted his on Feb. 6, 2022 in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), a 1 1/16 mile run which Messier won. I don't think he has any distance limitations.. [5] Easy Goer is also the record-holder for a two-year-old, earning a 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the 1988 Champagne Stakes. For losing horses, points are deducted according the lengths behind the winner and the distance of the race.Beyer Speed Figures are interchangeable from track to track. Barring any major surprises, Epicenter will be the favorite for the Preakness Stakes when the gates open on Saturday. We knew Olympiad was fast he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a mile in :12.53, according to Equibase, was especially impressive. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts. 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